2009-Aug-8, 09:35

It's still cool to be cheap

 

< ;h2 class="storysubhead">Although the savings rate dipped in June, economists think it may be a temporary blip -- which is good for the long term but bad for the short term.
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When do you think the economy will improve?
  • Next year
  • Over the next few months
  • Not for at least a year
  • It's already on the mend

Joseph Liro, an economist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, a Princeton, N.J.-based economic and fixed income research firm, also thinks that the June slide in the savings rate may be merely a blip.

Liro said that the painful and precipitous declines in both the housing and stock markets have proven to people that supposedly safe investments are not a substitute for cash in the bank.

"Savings were woefully low at the peak of the last economic cycle. When the economy turned down people were caught with very little savings to fall back on," he said. "People have made a concerted effort to rebuild their savings."

It also goes without saying that as long as the unemployment rate continues to rise, the "recovery" may not feel like much of one for average Americans. That is likely to encourage people to save more as well.

"The overall state of the economy, coupled with steady concerns over job security, has created a quantifiable uneasiness regarding personal finances," said Cathy Weatherford, chief executive officer and president of the Insured Retirement Institute, a nonprofit group focusing on retirement planning strategies, in a statement Tuesday.

Saving is good, but too much saving could slow recovery

However, the boost to savings is both a good thing and a bad thing. For the short-term, many are hoping that consumers will be slightly less conservative.

With the stock market soaring since early March on the belief that the recovery is around the corner, a lot is riding on what consumers do during the second half of the year.

If the back-to-school and holiday shopping periods turn out to be a bust, it will be a lot harder to argue that the economy is really improving. Consumer spending accounts for the overwhelming majority of the GDP after all.

Liro said that consumers may slowly becoming more willing to spend, even for big-ticket items like cars. Ford (F, Fortu ne 500), for example, reported its first year-over-year increase in sales for July on Monday. GM, Chrysler and Toyota (TM) also posted relatively decent July sales.

But a big portion of these sales came from consumers looking to take advantage of the Cash for Clunkers trade-in program so they could save money on a new car. In other words, the lift in auto sales was a result of consumers continuing to be thrifty.

"People may be enticed to buy a car if you give then a big enough incentive. But other than special circumstances, consumers are still in a defensive stance," he said.

It's uncertain how much longer consumers will stay in this posture. Nonetheless, Gonzalez said that the long-term benefits of consumers getting their financial houses in order outweigh the potential negative impact that lower levels of spending will have in the next year or so.

"It's quite possible that the recovery will be muted. At the very least, consumer spending will be," he said. "But for the long-term this is clearly a positive development. Being more judicious in the way we spend and not spending beyond the reality of our incomes is good."

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